Hello, Thunder fans! Welcome back to The Graham Jam newsletter. Thank you for starting your week with us.
Oklahoma City just wrapped its longest road trip of the season, a journey to Dallas, San Antonio, Charlotte and Cleveland that failed to produce any wins for OKC. The team's season record is now 14-32.
However, the Thunder did play hard in tough circumstances on Saturday night against the Cavs. They had played in Charlotte just the night before, and wintry weather made the trip to Ohio long and treacherous for the team. At one point, they had to get out and push their bus on the icy roads; they were then forced to wait in a plane for hours, and then change planes, just to make the flight to Cleveland.
They didn't get there until 8 a.m. Nonetheless, they played the Cavs tough 12 hours later and the game was in doubt until the final moments. Cleveland eked out a 94-87 win.
In this week's Graham Jam, we'll look at how Oklahoma City might approach the trade deadline and simulate the draft lottery again. Let's go!
Last week
Dallas 104, Thunder 102, 1/17 AWAY
San Antonio 118, Thunder 96, 1/19 AWAY
Charlotte 121, Thunder 98 1/21 AWAY
Cleveland 94, Thunder 87 1/22 AWAY
The Kenrich Conundrum
As the trade deadline approaches, Kenrich Williams' name has been thrown around as a possible player to be moved by OKC. But how does Williams feel about this?
Well, according to Joe Mussatto and The Oklahoman, Williams doesn't want to go anywhere. In fact, Williams told Mussatto that he "would like to retire here with the Oklahoma City Thunder."
So what will Sam Presti do?
We discussed Williams' appeal in a previous newsletter, but let's review the stats. In just over 20 minutes per game this season, Williams is averaging 7.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. His 3-point shooting (39.3%) is among the best on the team, and his on/off numbers show clearly that Williams provides a jolt to the Thunder second unit.
What's more, Williams is the rare player entirely comfortable in his role. He has yet to start a game this season despite his consistent stats, but seems to understand his role as a glue guy and mentor for this young squad.
There are two main reasons why Presti might be interested in moving Williams. For one, he is one of the few Thunder players who might be able to fetch OKC a decent return.
But more importantly, Williams is clearly making the team better. And that's probably not what Presti wants.
Just look at the standings. Oklahoma City is a half-game better than the Houston Rockets, which have the third-worst record in the league. The teams with the three worst records at season's end will all have a 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick in this summer's NBA Draft, and they'll have better than 50/50 odds at a top-four pick.
It must be tempting at this point for Presti to try to maximize OKC's draft odds. Last year, the Thunder did that by shutting down Al Horford after Shai Gilgeous Alexander's season-ending injury.
Health permitting, OKC has no intention of benching SGA this year. That leaves Presti no choice but to tinker around the margins; Williams would be a logical place to start.
The only complication? He wants to be here, and not every player feels that way about Oklahoma City. We'll have to wait and see what Presti decides to do, but not for too long: The trade deadline is Feb. 10.
Tank Time
We've already discussed Oklahoma City's position among the worst records in the league. Now let's go to Tankathon.com and see how that record might translate into the NBA Draft this summer.
Orlando (8-39), Detroit (11-34) and Houston (14-33) currently have the league's three worst records and, if the season ended today, would have identical 14% odds for the No. 1 overall pick and a 52.1% chance to pick inside the top four. As of Sunday, OKC is just a half-game ahead of Houston.
Here's what the latest simulation came up with:
1. New York (+10 spots based on current record)
2. Oklahoma City (+2)
3. Indiana (+2)
4. San Antonio (+2)
5. Orlando (-4)
6. Detroit (-4)
7. Houston (-4)
8. Sacramento (-1)
9. New Orleans (-1)
10. Portland (-1)
11. Atlanta (-1)
12. Minnesota
13. Boston
14. Washington
Whoa! That's a major upset and a highly unlikely outcome, as New York currently has just a 2% chance at nabbing the top pick. It would also likely inspire talks of a fix, as the league would no doubt love for the Knicks to get a great player and become a great team again.
But regardless, this outcome would be great for OKC and leave them in prime position for a player like Chet Holmgren or Paolo Banchero.
That's all from me this week. Let's end by looking ahead to this week's very light slate of games, which begin tonight at the Paycom Center against Chicago. Thunder Up!
This week
1/24: Thunder vs. Chicago, 7 p.m., Bally Sports Oklahoma
1/28: Thunder vs. Indiana, 7 p.m., BSOK