Thunder Enter Home Stretch

Hello, Thunder fans! Welcome back to The Graham Jam newsletter. For those who have the day off, enjoy your Presidents Day.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been out of action for a while now, but it wasn't a boring weekend. OKC's rookie point guard Josh Giddey made a splash during All-Star Weekend in Cleveland, where he participated in the Rising Stars events on Friday and the Skills Challenge on Saturday.

Giddey's teams didn't take any trophies, but the weekend was a great showcase for the young Aussie's abilities. During the Skills Challenge, where he paired with fellow rookies Cade Cunningham and Scottie Barnes, Giddey earned more points than his teammates in passing and shooting drills, even though he's not known as a shooter.

It was a fitting recognition for a player who had just put the league on notice with three triple-doubles in a row. It won't be Giddey's last All-Star Weekend, that's for sure.

In this week's Graham Jam, we'll play another round of Tank Time and look at where OKC sits statistically at the All-Star break. Let's go!

Last week

Thunder 127, New York 123 in OT (1/14, AWAY)

San Antonio 114, Thunder 106 (1/16 HOME)

Stat Blast

The Oklahoma City Thunder have now played 58 ballgames and completed just under 71% of their season schedule for a 18-40 record overall. With the season nearly three-quarters complete and the All-Star Game in the rear-view mirror, now's a logical time to check in on OKC's statistics before the season ends. What do the stats say about why this young squad has struggled? Here are a few insights:

The Thunder have a top-10 defense. Through 58 games, Oklahoma City is giving up 109.6 points per 100 possessions to its opponents. That's good for 10th in the NBA, just behind Utah's perennial defensive standouts at 109.3 points and ahead of Philadelphia at 109.6.

This is ... surprising. To say the least. Oklahoma City lacks a traditional rim protector who can guard the basket, making it easy work for post players throughout the league. And with such a young squad – the youngest in the NBA – you'd expect that inexperience to show up on the defensive end.

But Oklahoma City makes up for a lack of interior defense with solid height throughout the lineup, like 6-8 point guard Giddey, and by working hard. This one can be chalked up to good coaching from Mark Daigneault and staff, and to tenacious perimeter defense from guys like Lu Dort, one of the best on-ball defenders in the Western Conference. When it comes to defense, OKC is ahead of schedule.

But it's also the worst offense in the league. The crux of OKC's struggles come from its offense, where it averages 102.8 points per 100 possessions, the lowest mark in the NBA. Detroit is 29th at 103.4, and the league leaders in Utah average a blistering 116.3 points per 100.

Much of OKC's trouble can be explained by poor shooting. The Thunder have the worst team 3-point percentage in the NBA, at 31.3%, which is also second to Detroit (32%). The Atlanta Hawks, as a team, lead the league at 37.7% from beyond the arc.

Despite missing so many 3s, OKC takes the eighth-most in the league on a per-game basis (37.5), and the ninth-most per 100 possessions (38.1). Obviously, 3-point shooting doesn't explain everything wrong with the Oklahoma City offense. But it's a big part of the problem.

OKC also needs to boost its free-throw percentage, which is 21st in the league at 76.2%. The Thunder need to get to the charity stripe more often, too, as their free-throw attempt rate is 29th in the NBA.

Using a statistic that accounts for every type of shot, including free throws, OKC is dead last in true-shooting percentage in the league at 51.7%. Utah leads true shooting at 59.2%.

Other than abysmal shooting, though, there's not a lot obviously wrong with the OKC offense. It plays with average pace, 17th overall according to Basketball Reference. It grabs more rebounds on a per-game basis than all but five teams in the league. And the average distance of OKC's shots this year, 14.3 feet, is exactly league-average.

Team leaders. Among Thunder players who average more than one 3-point attempt per game, Mike Muscala leads the Thunder in shooting at 42.9%. Dort takes the most 3s, at 7.7 per game, and makes 33.2% of them.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, not surprisingly, leads the Thunder in scoring at 22.7 points per game, while Dort averages 17.2 and Giddey gets 12.4. Giddey is the team's rebound champ, at 7.8 per game, and also paces the Thunder in assists at 6.4. The young man is special.

Injury report

This weekend's All-Star break has provided much-needed rest for most Thunder players, who are grinding toward the conclusion of the first 82-game NBA season since 2018-2019. And with the long season comes aches, pains and injuries for every team.

OKC's most notable injury is undoubtedly to Gilgeous-Alexander, who hasn't played since Jan. 28 because of a sprained ankle. At the time, OKC said SGA would be out until at least the All-Star break, which just passed. This weekend Shai posted on Instagram that he will "be back soon," which is great to hear.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, who hasn't played since Jan. 28, has a fractured foot and will be reevaluated in mid-March. Muscala is dealing with an ankle injury and was set to be reevaluated after the All-Star game, so we'll see when the sharpshooter might reappear.

Dort, Kenrich Williams and Ty Jerome were all day-to-day when they missed OKC's game against San Antonio. I'd expect to see them back in action this week.

Tank Time

Before we go, let's push the button at Tankathon.com and see where the Thunder shake out this week in a simulation of the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery.

If the season ended today, Oklahoma City would have the fourth-worst record in the league and a 12.5% chance for the No. 1 overall pick. It would have a 48.1% chance to pick in the top four.

There are four prospects vying for the No. 1 overall pick this year, including Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith Jr. and Jaden Ivey, so picking at the top would be huge. Here's how the sim shakes out this week:

1. Detroit (+1 from current record)

2. San Antonio (+6)

3. Atlanta (+10)

4. Sacramento (+2)

5. Orlando (-4)

6. Houston (-3)

7. Oklahoma City (-3)

8. Indiana (-3)

9. Portland (via New Orleans, -2)

10. New York (-1)

11. Portland (-1)

12. Memphis (via LA Lakers, -1)

13. Washington (-1)

14. Charlotte

That's all from me this week, folks. Enjoy your week and be sure to tune in Thursday when the Thunder return. Thunder Up!

This week

2/24: Thunder vs. Phoenix, 7 p.m., Bally Sports Oklahoma

2/25: Thunder @ Indiana, 6 p.m., BSOK