-
Oklahoma City Thunder -
Graham Dudley
Happy Monday, and welcome back to The Graham Jam newsletter! We are your one stop shop for all the latest news and notes from your Oklahoma City Thunder.
Oklahoma City has finally earned its first win of 2022, besting the Brooklyn Nets in New York last Thursday by a 130-109 score. But OKC blew an 18-point, third-quarter lead on Saturday night at the Paycom Center, falling 107-102 to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
OKC's season record is now 14-28 — it's now 42 games in, officially past the halfway point of the schedule.
Despite the losses, Oklahoma City has cleaned up the first-quarter problems we discussed last week. The Thunder have scored more than 30 points in the first quarters of the past three games, including 38 on Thursday in Brooklyn, and were in the lead after each.
Hanging in through the next three quarters has become the bigger problem for the team, and they'll look to finish stronger as the season continues Monday night in Dallas.
In this week's Graham Jam, we'll look at the OKC schedule, play another game of Tank Time and explain why you should be watching the Los Angeles Clippers this season. Let's go!
Last week
Washington 122, Thunder 118 (1/11 AWAY)
Thunder 130, Brooklyn 109 (1/13 AWAY)
Cleveland 107, Thunder 102 (1/15 HOME)
Cratering Clippers
When Oklahoma City traded Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2020, they got more back than the ascendant Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC netted Danilo Gallinari and five first-round picks in the blockbuster deal.
Gallinari is long gone, but the picks will keep coming for a while yet. And though LA's 2022 first-round selection didn't seem all that enticing at first, injuries have knocked the Clippers down a peg. In fact, as of today the Clippers are out of the playoffs and in the draft lottery — giving Oklahoma City two lottery picks, if the season ended today.
There's little reason to believe that Los Angeles will claw its way back into the playoff picture. Kawhi Leonard has been out all season, recovering from a surgery on his ACL, though he's expected back later this year. The real dagger came when Paul George injured his elbow three weeks ago, leaving a mediocre Clippers squad rudderless without either of its two best players.
The Clippers initially didn't expect George to miss the rest of the season, but it looks increasingly like he might. And if George never comes back, Los Angeles may well slow-walk or even hold out Leonard, even if he's healthy enough, for lack of incentive to come back.
If so, it would be a gift to Oklahoma City and its lottery odds. Next we'll look at how LA's injury-fueled ineptitude could benefit OKC.
Tank Time
Over the past few weeks, we have looked at some of the top prospects in the 2022 NBA Draft who the Thunder might hope to add. This week, let's go back and see where Oklahoma City might be picking.
The top three players taken this year will probably be Auburn's Jabari Smith Jr., Duke's Paolo Banchero and Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren in some order. While it's entirely possible that a star player will emerge outside those prospects, picking at the top of the draft would be a big win for Oklahoma City.
With that in mind, let's go to Tankathon.com and see where OKC falls at the moment. According to the site, which allows fans to simulate the NBA Draft Lottery, OKC currently has the fourth-worst record in the league behind Houston (13-32), Detroit (10-32) and Orlando (8-36). That gives OKC a 12.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, and a 48.1% chance at picking in the top four.
The Clippers have a 2% chance at the top pick and a 9.4% chance to pick inside the top four. With LA's pick factored in, that boosts OKC's chances of a top-four pick to well over 50/50.
So let's simulate the lottery. After pushing the button, the simulated draft order is:
1. Houston (+2 over current record)
2. New Orleans (+4)
3. Orlando (-2)
4. Atlanta (+5)
5. Detroit (-3)
6. Oklahoma City (-2)
7. Indiana (-2)
8. San Antonio (-1)
9. Sacramento (-1)
10. Portland
11. Oklahoma City (via LA Clippers)
Not the result the Thunder would be hoping for; however, should this scenario play out, Oklahoma City has plenty of future draft capital to trade away if one of the top-three teams is interested.
That's all for me this week. Tune in tonight for the next Thunder game as they look to take down a rival in Dallas. Thunder Up!
This week
1/17: Thunder @ Dallas, 7:30 p.m., Bally Sports Oklahoma
1/19: Thunder @ San Antonio, 7:30 p.m., BSOK
1/21: Thunder @ Charlotte, 6 p.m., BSOK
1/22: Thunder @ Cleveland, 7 p.m., BSOK