Thunder Season in Review

Good morning, Thunder fans! Welcome back to The Graham Jam newsletter — the final one of the 2021-22 Thunder season, as the team will play its final game in just six days on Sunday, April 10.

Oklahoma City has four games remaining. It is 23-55 after a surprising 117-96 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Sunday night, the league's best team with a 62-16 record. Yes, the Suns sat several of their best players including Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. And yeah, it would have been nice for OKC to lose and leapfrog the Detroit Pistons, whose winning streak has put them in danger of losing third position in the "reverse standings" for best draft lottery odds.

But it sure was fun to watch this young OKC team beat up on ex-Thunder Chris Paul and the NBA title-favorite Suns. Aleksej Pokusevski logged the first triple-double of his career, Olivier Sarr led the team in scoring with 26 points on a ludicrous 5-for-6 night from behind the arc, and Aaron Wiggins put up 17 points of his own. Good vibes all around.

This week's newsletter will be a comprehensive season in review. There are still games to play, so these stats and evaluations aren't final, but they're pretty darn close.

This Thunder season was exactly what we expected it to be — a rebuilding year. OKC's win total is set to finish right around its preseason over/under of 23.5. Not many would have taken the over, though, and OKC has a great chance to reach it with games against the Blazers and Lakers this week.

Despite the expected struggles, OKC's season surprised and delighted in many ways. Let's take a look.

Last week

Thunder 134, Portland 131 (OT, 3/28 AWAY)

Atlanta 136, Thunder 118 (3/30 HOME)

Detroit 110, Thunder 101 (4/1 HOME)

Thunder 117, Phoenix 96 (4/3 HOME)

Season in review: Standout players

Forgive me if this section is a bit unwieldy, but I'm going to try to organize my thoughts about the Thunder's year — the highs, lows, biggest moments and future opportunities — as best I can. Overall, I think Thunder fans should be very excited about the direction of the franchise, though a big turnaround is unlikely next season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Everyone knew that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a bona fide star before the season even began. But he struggled a bit to start the year, as the team's obvious best player that opposing defenses could focus on. Shai leveled up after returning from injury in late February, though, and ended up averaging a career-high 24.5 points per game. SGA will finish the season having played just 56 games; he hasn't played more than 70 since his rookie campaign. Is SGA injury-prone? He definitely could have finished the season if not for the team's tanking desires. Still, his durability will be worth watching in the future.

Josh Giddey: By far the most pleasant surprise on the team, Josh Giddey was considered a reach when taken No. 6 overall by the Thunder last summer. A lot of Thunder fans were disappointed to get the sixth pick and disappointed by the team's selection, at the time. But Giddey proved this year that he is an elite passer, a competent scorer and a great teammate. He averaged 12.5 points, 6.4 assists and 7.8 rebounds in 54 games while becoming the youngest player ever to record a triple-double — which he's now done four times. Giddey especially shined during Gilgeous-Alexander's injury absence this winter. Unfortunately, Giddey was sidelined quickly upon SGA's return and unable to play with him down the stretch. The long-term pairing between Shai and Giddey appears, for now, like the team's biggest and most important question moving forward.

Luguentz Dort: Lu Dort's future with the Thunder is worth keeping an eye on. He was the team's second-leading scorer (17.2 ppg) and its best perimeter defender, by far, and he's only 22 years old. But is he part of the long-term plan? How does he fit next to Giddey and Gilgeous-Alexander? Dort could be OKC's most valuable trade chip, aside from the untouchable, aforementioned guards. And injuries limited the Canadian to just 51 games; he has never played more than 52 through three seasons. Dort could be a franchise staple for years to come, or he could be trade bait this summer. But either way, the career trajectory for this undrafted player has been incredibly impressive.

Season Stats

Let's take a look at how the Thunder, collectively, stacked up against the rest of the league this season. (Hint: Mostly, not great.)

Offensive rating (points per 100 possessions): 104.6 (29th)

Defensive rating: 112.3 (17th)

Net rating: -7.7 (T-27th)

Pace (possessions per 48 minutes): 98.7 (12th)

Field goal %: 42.9% (30th)

True shooting %: 53% (30th)

Effective field goal %: 49.7% (29th)

3-point attempts/game: 37.6 (7th)

3-point %: 32.3% (30th)

Free-throw %: 76.1% (22nd)

Season superlatives

Best moment: There are some big comebacks and fun shots that could easily earn the title here. But the shot that came to mind first for me was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's buzzer-beater 3 to beat the Clippers on Dec. 18. That game actually didn't involve a huge comeback, as the Thunder led through most of it, but were down two in the final seconds with one last shot. The Paycom Center was packed on a Saturday night, and Shai's stepback 3 sent the crowd into a frenzy as the Thunder won 104-103. SGA did a little dance and celebrated with the team; it was perhaps the happiest and most fun moment of the season.

Worst moment: No question here. Oklahoma City set a new record for largest loss in NBA history when they went into Memphis and lost, 152-79, on Dec. 2. Sure, OKC was missing some guys, but the Grizzlies were without Ja Morant. (They've been excellent without Morant all season, for whatever reason, and will be a real "bear" in the playoffs.) It was a no-excuses situation — at some point, the team gave up and the Grizzlies never quit playing. It earned the Thunder some deserved public scorn. But it's worth noting that it was very much an aberration for this squad, which generally played teams close all year despite the bad record.

COVID Quirk: Oklahoma City had three head coaches this season, which probably doesn't happen very much in the NBA. Technically, of course, Mark Daigneault was the head man the whole time. But he missed two different stretches, one for the birth of his first child and one because of COVID-19, which sidelined most of the team at some point. Daigneault was relieved by Dave Bliss during the first absence, but Bliss wasn't available, either, when Daigneault got COVID. So in stepped Mike Wilks, who helmed the team for five games and became OKC's third acting head coach of the year. Fortunately, OKC seems very happy with Daigneault and probably won't be replacing him on a full-time basis for some time to come.

Tank Time: Offseason 2022

We can't leave without looking ahead to this offseason, a hugely important one for the future of the franchise. Here are the important dates to know:

NBA Draft Lottery: May 17

NBA Finals begin: June 2

NBA Draft: June 23

Summer League: July 7-17

Free Agency begins: Aug. 2

As a loyal Graham Jam reader, I don't need to remind you how important the draft lottery will be for OKC. Get the right player, and OKC could be nipping at the playoffs as early as next year. Fall far, and the rebuild is extended with sights on the 2023 draft, again.

Jabari Smith Jr., Chet Holmgren, Jaden Ivey and Paolo Banchero are still the consensus top four picks in the draft. (Unfortunately for us, none is playing in tonight's NCAA national championship game.) The Thunder would be lucky to have any of them.

Instead of playing the odds at Tankathon.com one last time today, I thought we'd do something perhaps more informative: look at where OKC has landed most often during all our simulations, which we've been performing for months. After all, this is just a numbers game, so reviewing the past will help us determine the most likely landing spots for OKC, which has sat at No. 4 from the bottom for months and may well finish there.

First overall: One time

Second pick: Four times

Third pick: One time

Fourth pick: Zero times

Fifth pick: Two times

Sixth pick: Two times

Seventh pick: Four times

Overall, this season we ran 14 simulations at Tankathon.com and got the coveted No. 1 pick just one time, though our odds of picking first are currently 12.5%. The great news is that we landed at No. 2 four times, which is tied for the highest incidence of any pick and would be an absolute home run for the franchise.

The bad news is that we are just as likely, apparently, to get the seventh pick as the second one. And that would be tough.

In our fourteen simulations, the Thunder were projected inside the top three six times total. They were never simulated at No. 4. And they landed between fifth and seventh eight times, making that, apparently, a more likely scenario.

But at the end of the day, no matter how many times NBA diehards may visit Tankathon.com, May 17 is all that really matters. So tune in and prepare yourself — it's either going to be a sad night, or one of the greatest in franchise history.

That's it from me this season, folks, save for the Graham Jam print edition that will be featured in your local newspaper this week. I hope you'll pick one up and join me for one last ride.

I'd like to thank Brett Wesner, Scotty Maxwell, Kimberly Jenkins, Marcus Mitchell, Tatiana Ryland and the rest of my team who greenlit this project and let me enter your inbox every week. And I'd especially like to thank you, the readers and Thunder fans throughout the state, who followed along with me all year. It's been a pleasure. I hope this newsletter has enhanced your experience and made a tough season more fun.

Until we meet again, Thunder Up!

This week

4/5: Thunder vs. Portland, 7 p.m., Bally Sports Oklahoma

4/6: Thunder @ Utah, 8 p.m., BSOK

4/8: Thunder @ Lakers, 9:30 p.m., BSOK

4/10: Thunder @ Clippers, 8:30 p.m., BSOK