OKLAHOMA CITY– The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in December to 99.5 and remained above its 52year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, two increased, three decreased, and five were unchanged. An increase in those expecting better business conditions primarily drove the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index fell 7 points from November to 84, the lowest reading since June 2024.
“2025 ended with a further increase in small business optimism,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While Main Street business owners remain concerned about taxes, they anticipate favorable economic conditions in 2026 due to waning cost pressures, easing labor challenges, and an increase in capital investments.”
“While Oklahoma’s small business owners are feeling optimistic, the looming state ballot initiative to raise the minimum wage remains a real cause for concern,” NFIB State Director Jerrod Shouse said. “Raising the minimum wage will result in price hikes for consumers and fewer jobs for vulnerable workers. It’s incumbent on Oklahoma voters to reject SQ 832. NFIB will continue working with lawmakers to ensure Oklahoma’s familyowned businesses can create good-paying jobs, meet their customers’ needs, and contribute to their communities.”
In conjunction with the December report, NFIB also released a new episode of the “Small Business by the Numbers” podcast. This is the NFIB Research Center’s new podcast where co-hosts Holly Wade, the Executive Director of the NFIB Research Center, and Peter Hansen, Director of Research and Policy Analysis, discuss the data, stories, and economic conditions affecting small businesses nationwide.
Key findings include:
•Twenty percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up 6 points from November and ranking as the top problem. This is the highest reading since May 2021.
•I n December, both actual and planned prices fell from the previous month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 4 points from November to a net 30% (seasonally adjusted). A net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices in the next three months (down 2 points).
• A net negative 3% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 5 points from November and the lowest reading since January 2021.
•The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 9 points from November to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted), contributing the most to the rise in the Optimism Index. This was the first increase since July.
• When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 9% rated it excellent (down 2 points), 54% rated it good (up 1 point), 34% rated it fair (up 4 points), and 3% rated it poor (down 2 points).
• The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains rose 6 points to a net negative 1% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading of the year.
• In December, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, unchanged from November. Beneath simple yes/no impact binary, there was a positive shift from those reporting a significant impact to those reporting a moderate or mild impact.
As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 33% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in December, unchanged from November. Unfilled job openings remain above the historical average of 24%. Of the 53% of owners hiring or trying to hire in December, 91% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 17% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 2 points from November.
Fifty-six percent of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, up 4 points from November. Of those making expenditures, 37% reported spending on new equipment (unchanged), 27% acquired vehicles (up 8 points), and 19% improved or expanded facilities (up 5 points). Thirteen percent spent money on new fixtures and furniture (up 3 points), and 7% acquired new buildings or land for expansion (up 2 points). Nineteen percent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next six months, down 1 point from November. Historically, this is a weak reading.
A net negative 8% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up 1 point from November. Actual sales remain below the historical average of a net 0%. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes over the next quarter fell 5 points from November to a net 10% (seasonally adjusted).
The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains rose 6 points to a net negative 1% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading of the year.
Not seasonally adjusted, 13% reported increases in stocks (up 1 point), and 15% reported reductions (down 3 points). A net negative 1% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in December, unchanged from November.